PUBLISHED 10/20/2006
Is a sub two hour marathon possible? Yes, Edward Coyle, the director of the Human Performance Laboratory at the University of Texas at Austin, told the audience at the LaSalle Bank World Conference on Sports Science and Medicine.
Coyle used data from his own studies, longitudinal data on Paula Radcliffe, and formulas developed by researcher Mike Joyner to reach that conclusion. Joyner used data on runners' VO2 max and their ability to run at a sustained pace at over 80% of their max readings. That data indicated that a marathoner with a VO2 of 84 ml/kg who maintain a pace that required him to run at 71 ml/kg could complete a marathon in one hour, 45 minutes.
As that represents almost a 20 minute drop from the current men's world best, Coyle added a 10% "fatigue factor" to that formula to take into account the potential slowing of pace toward the end of a race and a breakdown in running economy brought on by the distance. Even with that correction, the projected time worked out at 1:57:48, a perhaps more realistic drop of seven minutes over Paul Tergat's 2:04:55 record.
"I expect we're ready for a breakthrough (lowering of the men's record)," said Coyle. "I wouldn't be surprised that in the next five to ten years someone will run below two hours. The records are soft."
Especially compared to what the physiological data on current runners projects, said Coyle. Radcliffe, who has been measured to run at 88% of her VO2 max, if she could sustain that pace over the marathon distance could run as fast at Tergat. Even running at the more conservative 80% of her max, Radcliffe is capable of lowering her 2:15:25 record to 2:13.
These projections, Coyle admits, are merely guesses based on the current available data. The great unknown being what happens to an athlete's running economy during the final portions of a marathon. While athletes have demonstrated that they can run at 80% or more of the VO2 max during shorter runs, the question remains how long can they sustain that effort?
In 1999 Kenyan Moses Tanui made a similar guess when he was asked if anyone could break two hours in the marathon. Yes, he said. What did he base his opinion upon, he was asked. Because, he said, he knew how it felt to run a half marathon under an hour, and believed he could sustain that pace over the full marathon distance. Tanui never achieved that goal himself. Even Tergat has admitted that he doesn't believe we will see someone get under the two hour barrier anytime soon.
